Executive Summary

TRANSFORMATIVE REGIONAL FRAMEWORK - MODERATE RISK WITH STRONG POLITICAL ALIGNMENT

The Eastern Energy Partnership represents Atlantic Canada's most ambitious energy transformation initiative—a multi-billion dollar regional programme integrating offshore wind development (40-60 GW potential), hydroelectric expansion (Gull Island, Churchill Falls renegotiation), interprovincial transmission infrastructure, and export capacity to northeastern United States. The framework unites four Atlantic provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland & Labrador) with Quebec in coordinated energy strategy addressing electricity demand growth, fossil fuel generation retirement, and positioning region as renewable energy exporter.

Designated by Major Projects Office as "Wind West Atlantic Energy" transformative strategy (September 2025), the Partnership comprises multiple interconnected projects at varying development stages rather than single megaproject. Federal government signals strong support through MPO fast-track designation, with Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson identifying Eastern Energy Partnership alongside North Coast Transmission Line as Canada's priority electricity infrastructure initiatives.

Moderate risk profile reflects multi-jurisdictional coordination complexity (five provinces/territories, federal government), extensive Indigenous consultation requirements (Mi'kmaq, Wolastoqey, Innu, Inuit communities), and individual project development uncertainties. Balanced against complexity are unprecedented political alignment across Atlantic premiers, federal government commitment, proven renewable energy resources (wind, hydro), and growing northeastern U.S. demand for Canadian clean electricity creating compelling market opportunity.

Investment thesis centres on regional energy integration unlocking Atlantic Canada's massive renewable potential (offshore wind resources amongst world's best, underutilised hydroelectric capacity), transforming region from energy importer to exporter whilst enabling coal/natural gas retirement and creating long-term economic development. Suitable for institutional investors seeking portfolio approach across multiple Atlantic infrastructure projects, patient capital tolerating phased development timelines, and expertise navigating multi-jurisdictional frameworks.

Verdict: Recommended as strategic regional opportunity for institutional investors with CAD $1-5 billion deployment capacity across multiple projects, 15-25 year investment horizons, and experience in renewable energy and transmission infrastructure portfolios.

Programme Overview 

Geographic Scope: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland & Labrador, Quebec

Programme Type: Regional energy infrastructure framework comprising multiple interconnected projects

Total Investment: CAD $30-60 billion estimated (across all components over 15-20 years)

Lead Jurisdictions: Atlantic provincial governments coordinated through Council of Atlantic Premiers

Federal Support: Major Projects Office "transformative strategy" designation; Natural Resources Canada coordination

Indigenous Territories: Mi'kmaq Nation (all Atlantic provinces), Wolastoqey/Maliseet Nation (NB), Innu Nation (NL/Quebec), Nunatsiavut Government (Labrador Inuit)

Status: Strategic framework with individual projects at feasibility, planning, or early development stages

Timeline: Phased development 2025-2045; earliest projects operational late 2020s, full programme build-out mid-2040s

ProgrammeDescription

Strategic Vision:
The Eastern Energy Partnership envisions Atlantic Canada transitioning from net electricity importer (relying on fossil fuel generation and limited imports from Quebec) to major renewable energy producer and exporter. The programme addresses three strategic imperatives:

1. Domestic Energy Security: Replace retiring coal plants (phase-out complete by 2030) and aging natural gas generation with renewable sources
2. Regional Integration: Connect isolated provincial grids enabling interprovincial electricity trading and resource optimisation
3. Export Capacity: Position Atlantic Canada as renewable energy supplier to northeastern United States and potentially Europe
   
   

Programme Coordination Framework

• Council of Atlantic Premiers: Political leadership and interprovincial alignment

• Provincial energy/natural resources departments: Individual project development

• Federal Natural Resources Canada: Coordination, funding programmes, regulatory facilitation

• Major Projects Office: Streamlined approvals for priority components

• Canada Infrastructure Bank: Potential financing cornerstone for transmission/wind projects

Programme Components

COMPONENT 1: WIND WEST - NOVA SCOTIA OFFSHORE WIND (40-60 GW)

Overview:
Nova Scotia government's flagship initiative targeting 5 GW offshore wind by 2030, scaling to 40-60 GW over 20 years. Represents Canada's first major offshore wind development, leveraging world-class wind resources off Nova Scotia coast.

Investment: CAD $15-25 billion (initial 5 GW phase); CAD $100+ billion (full 40-60 GW build-out)

Status:

• July 2025: Federal and Nova Scotia governments jointly designated four offshore wind development areas
• Competitive bidding processes underway for initial projects
• Environmental baseline studies commenced
• Mi'kmaq consultation ongoing

Key Features:

• Fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines (water depths 30–300+ metres)
• Export-oriented (majority of generation for export to U.S. or other Canadian provinces)
• Onshore transmission infrastructure connecting offshore developments to grid
• Port infrastructure development (fabrication, installation, maintenance)

Indigenous Considerations:

• Mi'kmaq Nation consultation regarding marine territories and traditional fishing areas
• Economic participation opportunities (construction, operations, marine services)
• Impact assessments on marine ecosystems affecting Indigenous fisheries

COMPONENT 2: GULL ISLAND HYDROELECTRIC (NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR)

Overview:
2,250 MW hydroelectric development on Lower Churchill River addressing Churchill Falls historical revenue imbalance whilst unlocking Labrador's remaining hydro potential. (See separate detailed fact sheet)

Investment: CAD $5-10 billion (generation); CAD $3-5 billion (transmission)

Status: Planning stage contingent on Quebec-Newfoundland & Labrador partnership agreement

Indigenous Considerations:

• Innu Nation consultation requirements (traditional territory)
• Nunatsiavut Government engagement (downstream impacts)
• Equity participation and Impact & Benefit Agreements essential

COMPONENT 3: CHURCHILL FALLS EXPANSION/RENEGOTIATION (NL-QUEBEC)

Overview:
Renegotiation of 1969 Churchill Falls power purchase agreement (expiring 2041) creating framework for expanded Lower Churchill development, revenue sharing addressing historical inequities, and integrated Quebec-Labrador hydroelectric optimization.

Investment: Negotiated revenue realignment (billions in future value transfer); potential physical expansion (CAD $2-5 billion)

Status: Active negotiations between Newfoundland & Labrador and Quebec governments (intensified 2023-2025)

Significance:
Unlocking Churchill Falls renegotiation essential prerequisite for Gull Island development, broader Quebec-Newfoundland energy partnership, and regional transmission development. Quebec Premier and Newfoundland Premier identifying this as top provincial priority.

COMPONENT 4: PEI-NB-NS TRANSMISSION INTERCONNECTIONS

Overview:
Enhanced electrical transmission linking Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia enabling interprovincial electricity trading, renewable energy integration, grid reliability. (See separate detailed fact sheet)

Investment: CAD $1-2 billion across multiple transmission projects

Status: Planning and early development; identified as "ready" components by federal minister

Key Projects:

• Enhanced PEI-New Brunswick undersea cable (300-350 MW capacity)
• New Brunswick-Nova Scotia interconnection upgrades
• Internal provincial transmission strengthening

Indigenous Considerations:

• Mi'kmaq Nation consultation (all three provinces)
• Wolastoqey/Maliseet Nation (New Brunswick)
• Transmission corridors typically lower Indigenous opposition than generation projects

COMPONENT 5: ATLANTIC LOOP TRANSMISSION (CONNECTING TO QUEBEC HYDRO)

Overview:
High-capacity transmission linking Atlantic provinces to Quebec's massive hydroelectric resources, enabling Atlantic provinces to import Quebec hydro during low wind/high demand periods whilst exporting wind energy to Quebec during surplus periods.

Investment: CAD $3-6 billion estimated (varies by route and capacity)

Status: Concept stage with multiple routing options under evaluation

Technical Configuration:

• High-voltage DC or AC transmission (1,000-2,000 MW capacity potential)
• Routes through New Brunswick connecting to Quebec grid
• Integration with existing New Brunswick-Quebec interconnections
• Potential subsea components (Bay of Fundy crossings)

Strategic Value:
Quebec's hydroelectric reservoirs function as massive "battery" storing energy when Atlantic wind generation high, releasing power during low wind periods. This integration addresses renewable energy intermittency challenge whilst optimising both regions' resources.

COMPONENT 6: NEW BRUNSWICK NUCLEAR EXPANSION

Overview:
Potential second large-scale reactor at Point Lepreau or small modular reactor deployment providing baseload generation complementing intermittent renewable energy (wind, solar).

Investment: CAD $5-10 billion (large reactor); CAD $1-3 billion (SMR deployment)

Status: Feasibility assessment; discussions with Ontario Power Generation regarding partnership

Significance:
Nuclear provides reliable baseload essential for grid stability as coal/natural gas retire. New Brunswick already operates Point Lepreau CANDU reactor (705 MW), providing operational experience and skilled workforce.


COMPONENT 7: QUEBEC NATURAL GAS PIPELINE EXTENSION TO NEW BRUNSWICK

Overview:
Proposed pipeline extending from Quebec City through New Brunswick to Belledune and Fredericton, connecting with existing Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline providing Atlantic provinces access to Western Canadian natural gas via Quebec rather than U.S. imports.

Investment: CAD $2-4 billion estimated

Status: Preliminary discussions; federal Natural Resources Minister noted "costs would be very significant" and "not aware of private sector proponent advocating today"

Challenges:

• High capital costs for pipeline through challenging terrain
• Uncertain economics given renewable energy priorities
• Natural gas as "transition fuel" faces climate policy headwinds
• Lack of identified commercial proponent

Assessment: Lower priority component; may not proceed given renewable energy focus and economic uncertainties.

Indigenous Consultation Framework

Multi-Nation Coordination Complexity:
Eastern Energy Partnership crosses traditional territories of numerous Indigenous communities across five jurisdictions, requiring comprehensive consultation frameworks:

MI'KMAQ NATION (ALL FOUR ATLANTIC PROVINCES):

Territory: Nova Scotia (entire province), Prince Edward Island (entire province), New Brunswick (eastern and northern regions), Newfoundland (small presence)

Governance: Assembly of Nova Scotia Mi'kmaq Chiefs, Mi'kmaq Confederacy of PEI, Mi'kmaq communities in New Brunswick

Consultation Issues:

• Offshore wind: Marine traditional territories, fishing areas, burial sites (offshore islands)
• Transmission: Terrestrial corridors crossing reserves and traditional lands
• Hydroelectric: Downstream impacts on rivers and marine ecosystems

Economic Participation Opportunities:

• Offshore wind construction, operations, marine services
• Transmission construction contracts
• Long-term maintenance agreements
• Potential equity participation in generation/transmission assets

Mi'kmaq Consultation Status:
Preliminary engagement commenced for offshore wind areas. Established consultation protocols exist in all provinces. Modern treaty discussions ongoing (particularly Nova Scotia). Generally positive disposition toward renewable energy projects provided meaningful consultation and economic participation.

WOLASTOQEY (MALISEET) NATION (NEW BRUNSWICK):

Territory: Saint John River valley and surrounding regions (New Brunswick, northern Maine)

Communities: Six Wolastoqey First Nations in New Brunswick with Aboriginal rights and title claims

Consultation Issues:

• Transmission corridors through traditional territories
• Potential nuclear expansion at Point Lepreau
• Natural gas pipeline routing (if proceeds)
• River system impacts from any hydroelectric components

Consultation Status:
Pabineau First Nation Chief Terry Richardson publicly supportive of New Brunswick energy proposals including nuclear expansion. Indicates openness to partnership provided proper consultation and benefits.

INNU NATION (NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR, QUEBEC):

Territory: Labrador interior and northeastern Quebec, including Lower Churchill River watershed

Consultation Issues:

• Gull Island hydroelectric impacts on traditional territories, hunting, fishing
• Churchill Falls expansion activities
• Transmission corridors through Innu lands
• Cumulative impacts from multiple Churchill River developments

Challenges:
Strained relationship with Newfoundland government following Muskrat Falls consultation disputes. Gull Island requires substantially improved consultation approach incorporating:

• Early engagement before project parameters finalised
• Impact & Benefit Agreements with revenue sharing
• Equity participation opportunities
• Environmental assessment incorporating traditional knowledge
• Recognition of Aboriginal rights and title

NUNATSIAVUT GOVERNMENT (LABRADOR INUIT):

Territory: Northern and coastal Labrador with comprehensive land claims agreement

Consultation Issues:

• Lower Churchill development downstream impacts
• Coastal ecosystem effects
• Marine resources important to Inuit communities
• Transmission corridors through Inuit lands

Precedent:
Nunatsiavut demonstrated through Voisey's Bay nickel mine negotiations capacity to secure substantial benefits and equity participation. Expect similar approach for energy infrastructure.

Federal Consultation Framework

Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada coordinates whole-of-government consultation approach ensuring:

• United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act compliance
• Free, prior and informed consent principles
• Treaty rights and Aboriginal title recognition
• Capacity funding enabling meaningful participation
• Indigenous Advisory Council input on major projects

Major Projects Office Indigenous Advisory Council:
Announced alongside MPO launch, council advises on ensuring reconciliation and partnership built into every nation-building project decision, with focus on Indigenous economic participation, equity ownership opportunities, and broader benefits.

Investment Benefits

REGIONAL ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION:

Construction Phase (15-20 years):

• Direct employment: 50,000-80,000 person-years across all programme components
• Indirect/induced employment: 100,000-150,000 jobs in supply chain and services
• Annual construction economic activity: CAD $3-5 billion during peak periods
• Skills development: Advanced renewable energy, transmission, marine construction expertise
• Supply chain stimulus: Manufacturing, engineering services, marine industries

Operational Phase (50+ years):

• Permanent employment: 5,000-8,000 direct jobs (offshore wind operations, transmission maintenance, hydroelectric operations)
• Indirect employment: 15,000-25,000 supply chain and service jobs
• GDP contribution: CAD $5-10 billion annually from operations, exports, economic multipliers
• Provincial revenues: Substantial royalties, taxes, economic development

ENERGY SYSTEM BENEFITS:

Fossil Fuel Retirement:

• Coal generation: Phase-out complete by 2030 (already achieved)
• Natural gas generation: Gradual replacement with renewables and nuclear baseload
• Emissions reduction: 5-10 million tonnes CO2e annually from generation displacement and export to U.S. markets

Regional Grid Integration:

• Enhanced reliability through interprovincial connections and resource diversity
• Cost optimization: Shared resources reducing need for redundant generation capacity
• Renewable energy balancing: Wind resources complementing hydroelectric storage
• Emergency backup: Interconnected system provides mutual support during outages

Export Revenue Opportunity:

• Northeastern U.S. market: CAD $2-4 billion annual export potential (mature programme)
• State renewable portfolio standards: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York mandates
• Premium pricing: CAD $80-150/MWh typical for Canadian clean energy imports
• Long-term contracts: 15-25 year power purchase agreements providing revenue certainty

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS:

Emissions Reduction:

• Direct generation: Zero-emissions wind and hydroelectric displacing fossil fuels
• Export displacement: Canadian clean electricity replacing U.S. natural gas generation
• Total annual emissions avoided: 10-15 million tonnes CO2e (mature programme)

Renewable Energy Leadership:

• Canada's largest offshore wind development establishing national expertise
• Technology demonstration: Floating offshore wind in deep Atlantic waters
• Supply chain development: Domestic manufacturing capacity for offshore wind industry

STRATEGIC BENEFITS:

Energy Security:

• Reduced dependence on imported fuels (currently importing U.S. natural gas)
• Regional self-sufficiency through diverse renewable resources
• Export revenue diversifying Atlantic Canadian economy

Trade Diversification:

• New export commodity (electricity) complementing traditional resources (oil, gas, seafood)
• Northeastern U.S. market access strengthening Canada-U.S. energy integration
• Potential future Europe exports via subsea cables (long-term possibility)

Economic Development:

• Transforming Atlantic Canada from "have-not" to energy-producing region
• Reversing outmigration through long-term employment opportunities
• Infrastructure investments attracting other industries (data centres, manufacturing requiring clean power)

Programme Economics

Total Investment Estimate: CAD $30-60 billion (all components over 15-20 years)

Component Cost Breakdown:

Offshore Wind (5 GW initial): CAD $15-25 billion

• Turbine supply and installation: CAD $10-15 billion

• Offshore substations and transmission: CAD $3-5 billion

• Onshore connection infrastructure: CAD $2-3 billion

• Port facilities: CAD $500 million - $1 billion

Gull Island Hydroelectric: CAD $8.5-16 billion

• Generation infrastructure: CAD $5-10 billion

• Transmission to markets: CAD $3-5 billion

• Indigenous partnerships: CAD $500 million - $1 billion

Churchill Falls Renegotiation: Revenue realignment (not direct capital)

PEI-NB-NS Transmission: CAD $1-2 billion

Atlantic Loop Transmission: CAD $3-6 billion

New Brunswick Nuclear: CAD $5-10 billion (if proceeds)

Programme-wide Infrastructure: CAD $2-4 billion

• System integration and control
• Shared transmission upgrades
• Grid modernization

Financing Structure:

Provincial Governments:

• Crown corporation leadership (Nova Scotia Power, NB Power, Nalcor Energy)
• Provincial loan guarantees
• Direct capital contributions

Federal Government:

• Major Projects Office coordination and regulatory streamlining
• Canada Infrastructure Bank cornerstone investments (CAD $5-10 billion potential)
• Regional development funding (ACOA, other programmes)
• Indigenous capacity and equity support

Private Sector:

• Offshore wind: Private developers under competitive procurement (CAD $15-20 billion)
• Project finance: Senior debt from institutional investors
• Equity: Infrastructure funds, pension funds, international developers

Indigenous Partnerships:

• Equity participation in generation and transmission (5-25% typical)
• Indigenous Loan Guarantee Programme support
• Revenue sharing agreements

Revenue Streams:

Domestic Electricity Sales:

• Provincial utility purchase agreements
• Regulated rates covering costs plus returns
• Inflation adjustments

Export Sales:

• U.S. utility long-term contracts (15-25 years)
• Merchant sales to spot markets
• Capacity payments for reliability

Ancillary Services:

• Grid balancing and frequency regulation
• Renewable energy certificates
• Carbon offset credits

UK & European Investor Assessment 

Investment Rationale:

Portfolio Approach Across Multiple Projects:
Rather than single CAD $30-60 billion deployment, investors can participate selectively across programme components matching risk appetite, sector expertise, and capital availability. Offshore wind, transmission, and hydroelectric offer distinct risk-return profiles.

Proven Renewable Resources:

• Nova Scotia offshore wind: Capacity factors 50-60% (amongst world's best)
• Labrador hydroelectric: Proven resources from Churchill Falls, Muskrat Falls
• Transmission: Essential infrastructure enabling renewables integration

Political Alignment Unprecedented:
All four Atlantic premiers plus Quebec unified support. Federal government MPO designation signals priority. Cross-party consensus (programmes survive election cycles). Regional coordination through Council of Atlantic Premiers institutionalizes cooperation.

Market Fundamentals - Northeastern U.S. Demand:

• State renewable portfolio standards mandating clean electricity
• Regional grid (ISO New England) seeking imports
• Premium pricing for Canadian hydroelectric and offshore wind
• Existing interconnections (New Brunswick-Maine) proving market access

European Offshore Wind Expertise Transferable:
UK and European investors/developers possess world-leading offshore wind expertise directly applicable to Nova Scotia. Technology, engineering, project management, financing structures proven in North Sea transfer to Atlantic Canada.

De-risked Through Phased Development:
Individual project approvals, staged construction, and incremental commissioning reduce programme-wide risk. Early projects (transmission upgrades, initial offshore wind) generate revenue whilst later components (Gull Island, full offshore build-out) develop.

Risk Profile - Moderate:

MANAGEABLE COMPLEXITIES:

Political Alignment:
Strength: Unprecedented cross-provincial and federal-provincial cooperation. Atlantic premiers presenting united front. MPO designation demonstrates federal commitment.

Risk Mitigation: Broad political consensus transcends individual political parties. Economic benefits substantial enough to maintain support across election cycles. Regional coordination institutionalized through Council of Atlantic Premiers.

PROVEN TECHNOLOGY:

Strength: Offshore wind, hydroelectric, and transmission represent mature, proven technologies. European offshore wind operational track record extensive. Canadian hydroelectric expertise world-class.

Risk Mitigation: Technology risk minimal. Execution risk managed through experienced developers/contractors. Harsh Atlantic environment comparable to North Sea conditions where Europeans operate successfully.

FEDERAL REGULATORY SUPPORT:

Strength: Major Projects Office fast-track reduces approval timelines to maximum two years for priority components. Single-window approach streamlines multi-jurisdictional coordination.

Risk Mitigation: Building Canada Act provides legislative framework. Dawn Farrell (experienced energy executive) leads MPO. Federal commitment demonstrated through Indigenous Advisory Council, capacity funding, and financing support signals.

MATERIAL RISKS REQUIRING ACTIVE MANAGEMENT:

Multi-Jurisdictional Coordination Complexity:

Challenge: Programme spans five provinces/territories requiring aligned regulatory approvals, cost allocation agreements, revenue sharing frameworks, and political cooperation sustained over decades.

Mitigation: Council of Atlantic Premiers provides coordination mechanism. Federal government facilitating through MPO and Regional Energy and Resource Tables. Economic incentives align provincial interests (all benefit from regional integration). However, interprovincial disputes could delay components.

Indigenous Consultation Extensive Requirements:

Challenge: Multiple Indigenous Nations across five jurisdictions with varying consultation frameworks, historical relationships, and consent requirements. Inadequate consultation creates legal challenges and construction delays.

Mitigation: Federal UNDRIP framework strengthens consultation requirements ensuring rigorous process. Capacity funding enables meaningful participation. Economic participation opportunities create positive incentives. Early engagement underway. However, consultation timelines lengthy and outcomes uncertain for individual projects.

Individual Project Development Risk:

Challenge: Programme components at varying stages with different proponents, regulatory pathways, and financing structures. Some components may not proceed (e.g., natural gas pipeline appears unlikely; Gull Island contingent on Churchill Falls renegotiation).

Mitigation: Portfolio approach allows selective participation in ready projects. Not dependent on every component proceeding. Core elements (offshore wind, transmission) advancing regardless of other components. However, investors must evaluate individual projects rather than assuming programme-wide delivery.

Offshore Wind - First Canadian Deployment:

Challenge: Canada lacks offshore wind precedent. No domestic supply chain. Harsh Atlantic environment. Permitting frameworks evolving. Vessel availability (Jones Act restrictions limit U.S. vessels; European vessels expensive to mobilize).

Mitigation: European developers bring proven expertise. Nova Scotia government commitment strong. Federal regulatory support. Port infrastructure investments (fabrication, installation) enabling sector. Competitive procurement attracting international developers. However, first-of-kind Canadian deployment creates execution uncertainty.

Export Market Revenue Dependency:

Challenge: Programme economics assume substantial electricity exports to northeastern U.S. U.S. state policies could change. Competition from other Canadian provinces (Quebec hydroelectric) or U.S. renewable projects. Transmission interconnection capacity constraints.

Mitigation: Northeastern states' climate mandates strengthening. Canadian imports preferred (reliable, lower carbon than domestic gas). Long-term contracts provide revenue certainty. Diverse customer base across multiple states. Domestic Maritime demand alone justifies some development. However, export assumptions critical to full programme economics.

Cost Escalation Precedent:

Challenge: Major Canadian infrastructure projects experience cost overruns (examples: Maritime Link 30%+, Muskrat Falls 82%, Montreal REM 30%+). Offshore wind globally experiencing cost inflation. Transmission through challenging Atlantic terrain expensive.

Mitigation: Competitive procurement transfers risk to developers. Fixed-price contracts where possible. European offshore wind contractors experienced in cost discipline. Phased development allows cost control assessment between stages. However, CAD $30-60 billion estimate could prove optimistic.

Climate Change Impacts - Hurricane Risk:

Challenge: Atlantic Canada faces increasing hurricane activity potentially damaging offshore wind infrastructure. Climate change effects uncertain but trending toward more intense storms.

Mitigation: Engineering standards account for harsh environment. Offshore wind designed for North Atlantic conditions. Insurance coverage for catastrophic events. European North Sea experience with storms. However, climate change introduces uncertainty in long-term asset performance.

Currency Exposure:
Investment costs primarily CAD. Domestic revenues in CAD. U.S. export revenues in USD providing partial natural hedge. Exchange rate: CAD $1.00 = £0.56 / €0.66 (October 2025). Long investment timeline (15-20 years) allows currency volatility to average out.

Strategic Context

ATLANTIC CANADA ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION:

Historical Context:
Atlantic provinces historically "have-not" regions receiving federal equalization payments, experiencing outmigration, and dependent on traditional industries (fishing, forestry, oil & gas). Energy sector limited to offshore oil (Newfoundland) and modest renewable generation.

Transformation Vision:
Eastern Energy Partnership positions Atlantic Canada as renewable energy powerhouse leveraging world-class wind resources (offshore Nova Scotia, Newfoundland), underutilised hydroelectric potential (Labrador), and strategic location for U.S. exports. Reverses "have-not" narrative through long-term economic development.

FEDERAL ENERGY SUPERPOWER STRATEGY:

Prime Minister Mark Carney's "Energy Superpower" Agenda:
Carney articulated vision of Canada as global energy leader providing reliable, lower-carbon energy to allies whilst strengthening domestic economy. Eastern Energy Partnership core pillar alongside:

• Western LNG exports (LNG Canada, Ksi Lisims)
• Critical minerals development (northwest BC, NWT, Ontario Ring of Fire)
• Interprovincial transmission (North Coast Transmission Line, Atlantic Loop)
• Nuclear expansion (Ontario SMRs, potential New Brunswick)

Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson explicitly identified Eastern Energy Partnership and North Coast Transmission Line as Canada's priority electricity infrastructure projects (August 2025), signalling federal commitment transcends political rhetoric.

NORTHEASTERN U.S. MARKET DYNAMICS:

State Renewable Portfolio Standards:

• Massachusetts: 80% clean energy by 2050
• New York: 70% renewable electricity by 2030 (Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act)
• Connecticut: Zero-carbon electricity by 2040
• Rhode Island: 100% renewable electricity by 2033

These mandates create sustained demand for Canadian clean electricity imports. Existing procurement: Massachusetts signed contracts for Quebec hydroelectric imports; other states evaluating similar agreements.

Canadian Advantage:

• Hydroelectric baseload complementing intermittent state renewables (wind, solar)
• Offshore wind capacity factors superior to many U.S. Atlantic sites
• Grid interconnection already established (New Brunswick-Maine, existing interties)
• Reliable supply from stable democratic ally (versus dependence on global fossil fuel markets)

INVESTMENT STRUCTURE OPPORTUNITIES

OFFSHORE WIND PROJECTS:

Direct Equity:

• Co-investment with selected developers winning competitive procurement
• Minority stakes (10-25%) in project special purpose vehicles
• European offshore wind funds applying North Sea expertise to Nova Scotia

Project Finance Debt:

• Senior debt financing offshore wind projects (60-70% leverage typical)
• Investment-grade credit given long-term utility contracts or government support
• Infrastructure debt funds, pension funds natural investors

TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE:

Regulated Utility Investment:

• Equity in provincial utilities (Nova Scotia Power/Emera, NB Power)
• Regulated transmission providing stable returns (9-10% allowed ROE typical)
• Long-term concessions with cost recovery certainty

Canada Infrastructure Bank Partnership:

• CIB cornerstone investment in transmission projects (20-30% equity typical)
• Institutional co-investment alongside CIB reducing development risk
• Revenue guarantees or demand floor mechanisms available

HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENT:

Quebec-Newfoundland Partnership Vehicle:

• Joint venture between Hydro-Quebec and Nalcor Energy developing Gull Island
• Private sector and institutional investor participation
• Indigenous equity participation structure

Project Finance:

• Long-term debt financing hydroelectric generation (50+ year asset life)
• Power purchase agreements with utilities and export customers
• Low operational costs supporting strong debt service coverage

PORTFOLIO APPROACH:

Multi-Project Investment Strategy:
Rather than single large commitment, investors can build diversified Atlantic Canada renewable energy portfolio:

• Offshore wind: 40-50% allocation (growth sector, higher risk-return)
• Transmission: 30-40% allocation (lower risk, regulated returns)
• Hydroelectric: 20-30% allocation (stable, long-term cash flows)

Phased Capital Deployment:
Staged investment matching project development timelines:

• Near-term (2025-2030): Transmission upgrades, initial offshore wind
• Medium-term (2030-2035): Offshore wind scale-up, Atlantic Loop transmission
• Long-term (2035-2045): Gull Island hydroelectric, full programme build-out

The Eastern Energy Partnership represents a transformative regional infrastructure framework positioning Atlantic Canada as renewable energy powerhouse through integrated development of offshore wind (40-60 GW potential), hydroelectric expansion (Gull Island, Churchill Falls), interprovincial transmission, and export capacity to northeastern United States. The CAD $30-60 billion programme delivered over 15-20 years creates long-term economic development whilst addressing domestic energy security and enabling fossil fuel retirement.

Moderate risk profile reflects multi-jurisdictional coordination complexity, extensive Indigenous consultation requirements, and individual project development uncertainties, balanced by unprecedented political alignment across Atlantic provinces, federal MPO support, proven renewable resources, and compelling northeastern U.S. market fundamentals.

Investment suitability depends on portfolio approach tolerance, phased capital deployment patience, and multi-jurisdictional framework navigation expertise. European offshore wind developers, Canadian pension funds, infrastructure investors with regional renewable energy strategies, and patient institutional capital find compelling long-term opportunity in Canada's largest renewable energy transformation programme.

Recommendation: Recommended as strategic regional opportunity for institutional investors with CAD $1-5 billion deployment capacity across multiple projects, 15-25 year investment horizons, selective participation matching risk appetite (transmission lower risk; offshore wind higher risk-return), and experience in renewable energy portfolios.

Final Assessment: Transformative regional framework with strong political backing, proven resources, and clear market opportunity. Requires portfolio approach, phased participation, and expertise navigating multi-jurisdictional complexity, but offers long-term value creation across Atlantic Canada renewable energy transformation.


Currency: Canadian Dollars (CAD)
Exchange Rate: CAD $1.00 = £0.56 / €0.66 (October 2025)
Document Reference: CIIF Energy Infrastructure Series – December 2025